MODELING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PAULOWNIA TOMENTOSA AND CATALPA OVATA IN THE SOUTHERN RUSSIAN BLACK SEA REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

The spatial distribution of Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.) Steud and Catalpa ovata D. Don, two of the most common alien woody species on the southern Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai, was modelled. It was found that both species are confined to habitats with similar bioclimatic and physiographic conditions. A component analysis of 29 bioclimatic and ecological-geographic variables in the habitats of both species indicates that the influence of annual precipitation, as well as its seasonal distribution, has a lesser influence on the spatial distribution of both species than temperature. Furthermore, for both species, the highest contributions to the principal components were observed from the variables of average annual temperature and solar radiation. It was established that the native woody plants Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn, Carpinus betulus L., Fagus orientalis Lipsky, and Fraxinus excelsior L., which compete with Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.) and Catalpa ovata D., exhibit greater ecological plasticity. It is suggested that disturbances to the vegetation cover are a necessary condition for the penetration of Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.) and Catalpa ovata D. Don into forest ecosystems along the southern Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai. In the presence of disturbances to the vegetation cover, a significant portion of the region is climatically and ecologically-geographically vulnerable to the introduction of the studied species. The MRIESM2-0 climate model indicates that climate conditions in 2041–2060 will favor further expansion of both species under both the most optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and the most pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios.